by Gold Dips on Dhanteras 2025: Buyers Find Relief as Mumbai Rates Slip
19 Oct, 2025When NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura noted a modest pull‑back in the market, shoppers across India breathed a sigh of relief on Dhanteras, Oct 18 2025. The day, which traditionally kick‑starts the Diwali buying spree, saw 24‑carat gold in Mumbai trade at ₹1,30,860 per 10 grams – a ₹1,910 dip from the previous day's ₹1,32,770. That small correction mattered because gold has been on a ferocious 60 % climb since last year’s Dhanteras, turning the festival into a high‑stakes buying ritual.
What Dhanteras Means for India’s Gold Market
Dhanteras isn’t just another holiday; it’s a cultural flashpoint where families fulfill age‑old vows to buy gold, silver, or precious gems. The story goes back centuries – a king’s queen dazzled Yama, the god of death, with heaps of gold and silver, buying the monarch more time. Today, that myth translates into queues that start before dawn and run past midnight in bustling bazaars.
The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) estimates that annual Dhanteras sales account for roughly 30 % of India’s total gold turnover. In plain terms, a single day can move more than 1,200 tonnes of the metal, enough to shift global sentiment.
Day‑by‑Day Price Moves on October 18, 2025
Besides Mumbai’s headline figure, prices slipped in other metros. In Delhi, traders reported a 24‑carat rate of ₹1,04,700 per 10 grams – a number that looks low compared with Mumbai but likely stems from differing local premiums and reporting methods.
GoodReturns broke down the spectrum: 22‑carat gold fetched ₹1,19,950 per 10 grams, while 18‑carat sat at ₹98,140. All three categories fell by roughly ₹150‑₹200 per gram compared with Oct 17, signalling a modest but welcome correction.
Silver didn’t escape the pull‑back either, sliding to ₹172 per gram (₹1,72,000 per kg) from ₹185 the day before. The twin dip in gold and silver gave bargain‑hunters a narrow window to lock in rates before the market potentially re‑accelerates.
Analyst Takeaways and Market Forecasts
“The outlook for Dhanteras 2025 is likely to continue with the bullish momentum in gold,” NS Ramaswamy warned, adding that resistance levels sit between ₹130,000‑₹135,000 per 10 grams, with support near ₹121,000. A break below ₹120,000 could open the door to sharper weakness.
Axis Direct research analysts echoed a similar tone, urging traders to “accumulate on dips in the ₹1,05,000‑₹1,15,000 band, eyeing a rally toward ₹1,45,000‑₹1,50,000 by the next Diwali.”
Veteran industrialist Harsh Goenka, Chairman of RPG Enterprises, offered a historical analogy: “1 kg of gold was a Maruti 800 in 1990, a BMW in 2019, and could be a Rolls‑Royce by 2030.” His point? Gold remains a store of value that appreciates faster than most consumer assets.
Broader Economic Factors Behind the Surge
Three big forces have been fueling the long‑term rally:
- Geopolitical tension: Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe keep investors reaching for safe‑haven assets.
- Rupee depreciation: A weaker rupee makes imported gold more expensive, nudging domestic prices up.
- Reserve Bank of India (RBI) buying: The central bank snapped up 1,180 tonnes of gold in 2024 and is slated to add another 1,000 tonnes in 2025, according to News18 analysts.
These drivers, coupled with inflation fears, have turned gold into a quasi‑currency for many Indian households.
What Investors Should Do Next
For the average buyer, the key takeaway is timing. The dip on Dhanteras 2025 was modest, but it may be the last breather before a new upward leg. Consider the following playbook:
- Set a price ceiling – many experts suggest ₹1,15,000 per 10 grams as a reasonable upper limit for the next six months.
- Watch the RBI’s quarterly gold‑stock disclosures; large additions tend to soften short‑term price pressure.
- Diversify – if you’re already holding 10 grams or more, think about adding 22‑carat jewelry, which offers a slightly lower premium.
- Stay alert to global cues – US Federal Reserve policy moves and oil price spikes often ripple through the gold market.
Keep an eye on the next Dhanteras in 2026; analysts are already flagging a potential breach of the ₹150,000 per 10 grams barrier – a level that would make gold more expensive than a mid‑range SUV.
Key Facts
- Date of price dip: 18 Oct 2025 (Dhanteras)
- 24‑carat Mumbai rate: ₹1,30,860 per 10 g (down ₹1,910)
- Gold’s 2024‑2025 surge: ~60 % on MCX front‑month futures
- RBI gold purchases 2024: 1,180 tonnes
- Analyst target for Diwali 2026: ₹1,50,000 per 10 g
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Dhanteras price dip affect first‑time gold buyers?
A modest drop of about 1.5 % gives newcomers a chance to enter the market at a slightly lower cost, but they should still budget for premiums and taxes. Buying during a dip can improve long‑term returns, especially if prices resume the upward trend observed over the past year.
What are the main risks of buying gold now?
The biggest risk is a sudden correction if global geopolitics ease or the rupee strengthens sharply. Additionally, a large RBI purchase cycle could temporarily flood supply, nudging prices down. Buyers should keep a stop‑loss mindset and avoid over‑leveraging.
Which cities usually show the highest Dhanteras gold premiums?
Metro hubs like Mumbai and Delhi tend to carry the steepest premiums because of higher demand and tighter inventory. Smaller markets such as Jaipur or Kochi often offer rates a few hundred rupees lower per 10 grams.
What does the RBI’s gold‑stock plan mean for future prices?
When the RBI buys large tranches, it adds a quasi‑governmental demand source that can steady prices in the short term. However, the added stock eventually needs to be sold or used for sovereign reserves, which could create a supply shock later, potentially pressuring prices upward.
Is gold still a good hedge against inflation in India?
Historically, yes. Over the past decade, gold has outpaced consumer‑price inflation by an average of 6‑8 % per year. The cultural demand during festivals reinforces this hedge, making gold a reliable store of value for most Indian investors.